Friday Nov 9, 2012
Blue Square Bets Alan Algers weekend preview which shows that he favours AFC Telford United on Saturday so hopefully we can prove him wrong and start to become favoutites at home game again.
FRIDAY'S LIVE MATCH - Alfreton Town v Newport County
Newport County kept their position as leaders of the Blue Square Bet Premier with an emphatic 6-2 win over Cambridge United on Tuesday. Justin Edinburgh's men have the chance to extend that lead on Friday night when they travel to Alfreton in the live Premier Sports game. The hosts have only won one of their last eight games in the league, drawing five of them, four of which by a 1-1 scoreline. Newport are the 5/4 favourites to win for the second time in four days. Alfreton are priced at 2/1 to win at home for what would be only the second time this season. The draw is offered at 5/2 (another 1-1 draw for Alfreton's record is priced at 6/1). Newport have a very impressive win rate against the teams in the lower reaches of the table. The Exiles have played nine matches against teams in the lower half of the standings and have won every single one. Coupled with Alfreton's poor home record and their figures in the ‘goals for' column being the lowest in the division - it all points to an away win being a value bet.
Alfreton have the joint-worst attack in the division averaging just over one goal per game and opponents Newport have the best in the division averaging just over two goals per game. ‘Over 2.5' goals is priced at 8/13 for this match with ‘Under 2.5' offered at 6/5. The best ‘correct score' bet looks to be Newport to win 3-1 at 14/1. The ‘first goalscorer' market has County's Aaron O'Connor as the 7/2 favourite to break the deadlock. O'Connor netted a brace in the rout over Cambridge (his third double of the season) and is 5/1 to repeat that feat here and also 22/1 to go one better and score his first hat-trick of the season.
Wrexham host Hereford United in a 1pm kick-off at The Racecourse Ground in an intriguing clash to get Saturday's Blue Square Bet Premier fixtures underway. The visitors have had an incredible start to the month with an impressive home win over rivals Shrewsbury in the FA Cup followed up with a win over title favourites Luton Town in midweek. The stats for that game possibly show why Bulls keeper James Bittner was named man-of-the-match, keeping out 12 shots on target from Luton on the night. The most important stat from the game is the result though and Martin Foyle will be happy with the way his team have responded to a difficult time off the pitch for all concerned at Edgar Street. That result on Tuesday did weekend opponents Wrexham a favour in pegging back one of their title rivals. The Red Dragons have shortened to 11/4 to take the title that they so narrowly missed out on last year. Their last home game in the league resulted in a 4-2 defeat to Lincoln, but they bounced back with a win at Southport on Tuesday. Andy Morrell's team are the 4/6 favourites to win the game - one of six odds-on home teams in this round of BSBP fixtures. Hereford are the 7/2 outsiders to win two games in five days against the top pair in the title betting. A draw is priced at 13/5.
Luton Town remained in the top three, despite that defeat at Hereford, and host Dartford at Kenilworth Road this weekend. It's a make or break game for The Hatters even at this early stage of the season based on a number of stats for recent winners of the division. The Edgar Street result was their fifth loss of the season and none of the last ten champions have lost five matches before New Year. Paul Buckle's team also need to improve their goal difference and avoid defeat in their next three matches in order to comply with the 20 game trends of the past 12 champions. They are 8/13 favourites to beat the visitors from Kent. Tony Burman's team are looking to get back into the play-off zone after a defeat to Forest Green on Tuesday. The Darts have only won one of their last four games in the league but are still outperforming early forecasts for their league position by a large margin. An away win is offered at 4/1, the draw is 13/5. The same set of prices are on offer for Woking's visit to Grimsby Town. The Mariners take favouritism at 8/13 but have already lost three home games to top half opposition this season. Matches involving Woking have featured the most goals of any in the division - at 3.78 per game it's worth speculating that the ‘Over 2.5' goals market will come in - even at a restrictive price of 8/13. It certainly looks a more solid proposition than the home win at the same price.
Forest Green Rovers halted a four game losing streak in the division with a narrow win at Dartford in midweek. They are the 8/11 favourites to beat in-form Stockport County at The New Lawn. Rovers have hosted six teams from the top 20 in the division at home but have only won two of those games. Stockport have lost only once on the road and it's well worth speculating that they can hold Dave Hockaday's team to at least a draw at 12/5. County are 7/2 to register what would be their fifth win in seven league matches. Macclesfield Town are the 11/8 favourites to win at a struggling Cambridge United. The U's have dropped to 20th in the table with a winless run of four matches. Steve King's Macclesfield are eyeing up an assault on the play-off places and should add three points to a recent four game unbeaten haul of 8 from a possible 12. Gateshead registered back-to-back wins for the first time this season in midweek. That extended their unbeaten league run to seven games - currently the longest of all clubs in the division. They are the narrow 6/4 favourites to win at Braintree Town. The Essex side are 8/5 outsiders at home ahead of their long-awaited FA Cup clash with Tranmere next week.
Elsewhere AFC Telford United make some appeal at 17/10 to win at Tamworth. The hosts have struggled of late and have lost six of their last eight league matches. With just one defeat away from home it's worth taking Andy Sinton's men to win for the first time in just over a month. Mansfield Town are still struggling to live up to early season expectation but their home form has been reasonably good. They are 8/11 to beat Southport, who have won just two of their last eight league matches. Lincoln City are unbeaten in seven games in all competitions and are 9/5 to win at Barrow. The Bluebirds suffered the ‘Manager of the Month' curse in midweek as Dave Bayliss saw his troops lose at Stockport. They are 13/10 to get back on track here. Kidderminster Harriers look as though they will move out of the bottom half of the table over the next month or so and they can keep up that form by beating Nuneaton at a price of 8/11 at Aggborough. Hyde travel to Ebbsfleet in outstanding form having won their last three league matches. Scott McNiven's team are 23/10 outsiders to win a fourth game on the trot - something that has only been achieved by five teams in the top seven in the table.
Alan's Best Bets for Alfreton Town v Newport County:
NEWPORT COUNTY to win at Alfreton Town - Match Result
NEWPORT COUNTY to win 3-1 - Correct Score
AARON O'CONNOR to score first - First Goalscorer
Alan's Best Weekend Treble:
MACCLESFIELD TOWN to win at Cambridge United
KIDDERMINSTER HARRIERS to beat Nuneaton Town
DRAW - Forest Green Rovers v Stockport County
Alfreton Town v Newport County is live on Premier Sports TV - Friday 9th November at 7.15pm (7.45pm kick-off) - visit http://www.premiersports.tv/ for subscription details.
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