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Blue SQuare Bet Wrexham FAC preview

Tuesday Jan 17, 2012

Wrexham v Brighton - FA Cup Replay - Betting Preview - by Alan Alger from Blue Square

Wrexham v Brighton - FA Cup Replay - Betting Preview - by Alan Alger from Blue Square

Blue Square Bet Premier leaders Wrexham will line up a fourth round FA Cup clash at home to Barclays Premier League Newcastle United if they can see off Brighton on Wednesday night. The third round replay at the Racecourse Ground promises to be an entertaining affair and we're giving Wrexham every chance of an upset quoting odds of 13/8. That will make the Red Dragons the slight outsiders, but they acquitted themselves well enough at the Amex for Brighton boss Gus Poyet to know he has a battle on his hands. The carrot of that home tie against Newcastle and a guaranteed near £125,000 TV windfall will mean that Poyet should field a slightly stronger team from the one he fielded in that first game. That shouldn't concern Wrexham boss Andy Morrell that much as his side are incredibly difficult to break down. Wrexham do not leak many goals and have the best ‘goals conceded per game' ratio in the country. The score for Wrexham's opponents in 24 of their 27 league matches has been 1 or 0! In fact the only times they have conceded more than one they have lost the game. They rarely fail to score - the 0-0 draw at Braintree Town a recent blip on their record. Brighton are the 6/4 favourites for the game and will of course be popular with punters that blindly look at the distance between two teams in the league system. That's a dangerous game though and, like the first game, I fancy Wrexham to keep it tight. Backing Wrexham with a goal start on the ‘handicap market' would pay out on a home win or a draw at 1/2.

Brighton's away form should also cause optimism in the Wrexham ranks. The Seagulls have just four victories from 13 games on the road in the Championship. Only two teams in the Championship have scored fewer goals away from home. Poyet's team have returned from their travels with 7 blanks in the league - a stat that nicely compliments Wrexham's record of nine clean sheets from their 14 home games in the Blue Square Bet Premier. The ‘total goals' market for the game pitches Under 2.5 at 8/11 and that has to be considered. A repeat of the 1-1 scoreline from the first game is priced at 6/1 on Blue Square's ‘correct score' market. Adrian Cieslewicz was the goal hero for Wrexham in that game and the former Manchester City youth player has scored in four of Wrexham's last nine matches including that valuable equaliser. Cieslewicz is 11/1 on the ‘First/Last goalscorer' markets and 100/30 to ‘score anytime' on the night. All markets count for the standard 90 minutes of the game, but with a result required on the night this one could go to extra-time and penalties. Our ‘method of victory' market offers a Wrexham win on penalties at 12/1.

Alan's Best Bets for Wrexham v Brighton:


UNDER 2.5 GOALS at 8/11


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The match will be shown live on Welsh channel S4/C which is available throughout the rest of the UK on Sky channel 134

You can follow Alan on Twitter - @AlanBlueSquare

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