Friday Sep 21, 2012
Alan Algers BSB weekend previw, click for full article
Blue Square Bet Premier - Live Match & Weekend Betting Preview - by Alan Alger from Blue Square Bet
FRIDAY'S LIVE MATCH - Grimsby Town v Luton Town
As the home team with five clean-sheets in an unbeaten run of seven matches, some punters might be expecting Grimsby Town to be the favourites for the live Premier Sports match at home to Luton Town on Friday night. The Mariners are actually the 7/4 outsiders with Blue Square Bet for the match at Blundell Park. Visitors Luton are the 13/10 favourites to win this fixture for the second season running following a 1-0 win in October of last year. Grimsby have only been beaten once this season and have had some difficult fixtures already. Matches against promotion rivals Wrexham, Mansfield, Hereford and Forest Green have yielded a total of 10 points, conceding just one goal in the process. Luton have failed to score in their last two games, including a heavy defeat at Alfreton. Their second clean-sheet of the season occurred at home to Wrexham last Saturday in a goalless draw. With the attacking options at Paul Buckle's disposal it would be strange to see The Hatters go three games without scoring - they are 12/5 to draw another blank.
At this early stage of the Blue Square Bet Premier season matches involving Grimsby Town have featured the lowest number of goals - just 1.89 per game. ‘Under 2.5 goals' for this match is priced at 4/5 and that looks a very good bet based on those match stats and Luton's recent record in front of the net. The continued absence of Liam Hearn has hit Grimsby hard but at least their management duo of Rob Scott and Paul Hurst have had 6 players who have been ever present in their nine starting line-ups so far. In contrast Buckle has only had two players - JJ O'Donnell and Mark Tyler - to call upon to start every game. Stuart Fleetwood is their top-scorer with 7 goals and is the 4/1 favourite to break the deadlock. Nathan Pond is Grimsby's joint-top scorer despite his defensive role, he has two goals along with strikers Anthony Elding and Greg Pearson. Pond is priced at 18/1 to get the first goal of the game and 7/1 to score at ‘anytime'. The best correct-score bet could be a narrow away victory - 1-0 to Luton is 6/1.
Newport County went back to the top of the Blue Square Bet Premier table last week with a 3-0 win in their delayed game at Barrow. The Exiles are the 4/7 favourites to stay at the summit with a home win over Southport. Justin Edinburgh's side have only conceded one goal at their new Rodney Parade home and an away win is unlikely at 9/2. The game of the day sees third placed Forest Green travel to second placed Macclesfield Town. A home win is priced at 11/10 with a Rovers victory offered at 2/1. Dave Hockaday's team have not won in their last two matches including their first defeat of the season, at Grimsby. Macclesfield have only conceded one goal at home all season and have a 100% record on their own patch which should continue. Wrexham's 0-0 draw at Luton was their fifth clean-sheet in their last six matches. Weekend opponents Dartford will have to be on their game to get anything from a stubborn Red Dragons defence. The visitors from Kent climbed up to sixth spot in the table with their fifth win in six games and are 9/2 to cause a shock. A home win is offered at 4/7.
Gateshead are yet to put two results together that are the same this season and have now lost two of their last three matches. Their away trip to Woking sees them as the slight outsiders at 7/4. The Cards were well backed winners at Stockport last week as they followed up a 6-1 demolition of Nuneaton. They are 13/10 to make it three wins on the bounce. Mansfield made it four wins from their last four home games with victory over Braintree Town last week. The Stags away form has been poor though and odds-on quotes of 10/11 for them to win at AFC Telford United might not tempt many. After their 1-0 win at Luton Town, Telford gained plenty of respect in the markets for their next five matches but only justified that respect in one (an away win at Southport). Andy Sinton's side are the 5/2 outsiders for this home match. Tamworth halted their four game losing streak with an impressive win at Gateshead last Saturday. Manager Marcus Law has spoken about the injury-crisis he went through during that bad run and now hopes he can keep somewhere near to his best XI fit and on the pitch. They are 11/10 home favourites against a Lincoln team who won only their second game of the season last weekend. That still leaves them 18th in the table and I could not recommend them at 2/1 to follow up.
Successive heavy defeats to newly promoted sides Hyde and Dartford have put a dent in Hereford's early season form. Conceding nine goals in those last two games is a big problem for boss Martin Foyle as he now negotiates a home fixture against free-scoring Cambridge. The U's hit three against Telford last week and haven't drawn any blanks this season. Hereford at 10/11 to win the game, with Jez George's team offered at 5/2 to break a six match winless sequence. Braintree Town haven't won for three matches either and they welcome Stockport County to Cressing Road. The Iron are the 11/10 home favourites against Jim Gannon's side who were sloppy at home to Woking last week. An away win is backable at 2/1. Alfreton Town are 6/5 favourites at home to bottom club Kidderminster Harriers. Steve Burr's team are 15/8 to get their first win of the season.
At the bottom of the table we have two matches involving four teams in the bottom five in the table. Hyde host Nuneaton Town as the 6/5 favourites to confirm superiority from last season's Blue Square Bet North table. That said, honours went to Nuneaton over both games as they took 4 points to the champions 1! Kevin Wilkin's team have conceded nine in their last two matches though and Hyde have just found their scoring touch. A home win looks the right call. The other basement clash sees Barrow travel to Ebbsfleet. The Fleet's last home game saw them beat Mansfield Town 3-1 and although they followed that up with a narrow defeat at Southport I expect them to get back to winning ways here. Barrow are 5/2 outsiders for the game but a home win looks best at 10/11.
Alan's Best Bets for Grimsby Town v Luton Town:
LUTON TOWN TO BEAT GRIMSBY TOWN - Match Result
UNDER 2.5 GOALS - Total Goals Under/Over
LUTON TOWN TO WIN 1-0 - Correct Score
Alan's Best Weekend Treble:
EBBSFLEET UNITED to beat Barrow
HYDE to beat Nuneaton Town
TAMWORTH to beat Lincoln City
Grimsby Town v Luton Town is live on Premier Sports TV - Friday 21st September 7.15pm (7.45pm kick-off) - visit http://www.premiersports.tv/ for subscription details.
You can play your part in the commentary for this game! Contact commentators Steve Bower and Ian Snodin during the action to give your thoughts - email: email@example.com OR Twitter: @steveandsnodsps.
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