Friday Sep 14, 2012
Click to read Alan Algers Blue Square Bet weekend matches preview
Blue Square Bet Premier - Live Match & Weekend Betting Preview - by Alan Alger from Blue Square Bet
LIVE MATCH - Cambridge United v AFC Telford United
A five match winless run has seen Cambridge United drop from 4th in the early table to a low of 17th. Jez George's side last won in mid-August and their last two matches have ended in defeats to fellow pre-season promotion contenders Wrexham and Luton. The U's have conceded 12 goals in their last five matches and are yet to score more than two in a game in this campaign. George read the riot act after their heavy home defeat to Wrexham and will be expecting a reaction here in front of the live Premier Sports cameras. Visitors Telford have kept clean-sheets in three of their away games already this season, although their last one ended in a heavy defeat at Nuneaton. That's the only defeat in their last six matches though and that recent form also includes wins at Southport and title favourites Luton Town. We make Cambridge the 4/5 favourites to get back to winning ways, but any punters who backed them for the title in pre-season at prices as low as 12/1 will be alarmed to see that quote now stand at 33/1. An away win is offered at 3/1, but the best bet could be a draw at 12/5. Andy Sinton's side will no doubt be happy to stifle the game and add to their impressive defensive record away from the New Bucks Head. ‘Under 2.5 goals' looks a good bet at 21/20, against a trend in the division for high scoring games. The best first goalscorer (correct score) bet could be ‘No Goalscorer' at a value price of 11/1.
Other Weekend Matches
Blue Square Bet Premier leaders Macclesfield Town are 4/5 favourites to win at Nuneaton Town on Saturday afternoon. Steve King's side have had mixed results away from home, but their two wins on the road coupled with a 100% home record has seen them climb to the top of the early table. Nuneaton were beaten 6-1 at Woking last week and it was the third time this season that they have conceded 4 or more in a game. With Macclesfield focused on taking the game to their opponents home and away this will be a real test for the home side as they look to steady the ship. An away win looks like a very good bet based on the attacking talent available to the Silkmen and I expect them to stay at the top of the table for at least another week. Forest Green Rovers suffered their first defeat of the season last week at Grimsby Town. Whilst it was one of my tips of the week I do concede (from reading the match reports) that there didn't seem to be too much in it between the two sides. In fact a number of Rovers fans feel that the three games in which they've dropped points featured nothing too wrong and their position is not as false as I may have made out last week. They are now second in the table but the suspicion does remain that, because their three hardest fixtures were the ones in which they dropped points, maybe they are not quite there as title contenders. They host Alfreton at the weekend before trips to both Macclesfield and Hereford. We will certainly know a lot more about Dave Hockaday's side by the end of the month. Despite Alfreton thrashing Luton last week they are still one of the biggest prices on Saturday's coupon - 5/1 to win at the New Lawn. A home win is the short priced favourite at 8/15.
The game of the day has to be the one at Kenilworth Road where in-form Wrexham are the visitors. The Red Dragon's travel to Bedfordshire off the back of four straight wins and have conceded just one goal in nearly 500 minutes of BSBP football. They take on a Luton side shell-shocked from their defeat at Alfreton last week and one that could still be missing key players. We quote a home win at a best price of 11/10 for that reason and in the same respect think Wrexham could be the value call to get at least a point. Andy Morrell's team receive a goal start on our ‘Match Handicap' and can be backed to draw or win at an attractive combined price of 8/13. The best correct score could be a narrow Wrexham victory with 1-0 taking the eye at 8/1. Early season leaders Newport County halted their losing run with a goalless draw at home to Stockport last week, they are 6/5 outsiders to get their first win of the month at Barrow. The Bluebirds will be full of confidence after registering their first win of the season last weekend (away at Tamworth) and could have their backers at 15/8 to follow that up with their first home win. Gateshead have only lost once this season, but are yet to put together back-to-back wins. They are 8/13 to set that ‘key stat' straight at home to a woefully out of form Tamworth. Marcus Law's side travel north with a losing streak of four matches and will no doubt be glad to arrest that slide in any way possible - including a draw at 5/2.
Grimsby Town have won three of their last four matches and have climbed to seventh in the table. The Mariners have made up for a slow start and look worthy 11/10 favourites to win at bottom side Kidderminster this weekend. Hereford United's crushing 5-2 defeat at Hyde was their third in four matches and what looked like a promotion charge earlier in the season has petered out to a mid-table consolidation. To be fair to Martin Foyle that was exactly what he expected this season to be when previewing the campaign, but he still may be alarmed by his side's recent form. A trip to another newly-promoted side, Dartford, is a succesive tough test and quotes as short as 7/5 for a home win for the Kent side highlight just how competitive this division really is. Mansfield Town suffered their fourth defeat of the season last week at Ebbsfleet and that already puts them out of the title race according to our ‘10 game benchmarks'. Boss Paul Cox would obviously entertain no such talk at this early stage of the season but will also know that they need a lengthy unbeaten run to get back on track. History says you canot do it but The Stags are 8/13 home favourites to win against Braintree Town. I cannot imagine punters trusting them just yet and they will likely go un-backed as they did for home victories over Tamworth, Woking and Hyde.
Elsewhere Stockport County look like a solid bet at 21/20 at home to Woking. The Cards may have beaten Nuneaton out of sight last week but I wouldn't expect Jim Gannon's side to give them so much freedom up front. A narrow home win looks best, with 2-1 at 15/2 the best shout. Southport's home match with Ebbsfleet will be an important one in terms of the relegation places, but it is no doubt too early to call it a six-pointer. It's never wise to under-estimate the value of beating those teams around you though as Fleet boss Liam Daish found out last season with 11 of their 14 wins coming against the bottom nine clubs in the final table. They also drew this fixture 3-3 last year and I'd expect goals again. Southport are the home favourites at Evens, but a better bet could be ‘Over 2.5 goals' at 4/7. Lincoln City host fellow bottom four side Hyde at Sincil Bank, and it's the visitors who start the game in high spirits. Scott McNiven's team are fresh from their maiden BSBP win over Hereford last weekend (5-2) and certainly won't fear an Imps side who haven't won since the opening day of the season. A price of 2/1 for an away win tells you all you need to know about the recent form of David Holdsworth's side and it would take a giant leap of faith to back them, even at an odds-against price of 11/10.
Alan's Best Bets for Cambridge United v AFC Telford United:
DRAW - Cambridge United v AFC Telford United
UNDER 2.5 GOALS - Under/Over Total Goals
NO GOALSCORER - First Goalscorer (Correct Score)
Alan's Best Weekend Treble:
GRIMSBY TOWN to win at Kidderminster Harriers
MACCLESFIELD TOWN to win at Nuneaton Town
STOCKPORT COUNTY to beat Woking
Cambridge United v AFC Telford United is live on Premier Sports TV - Saturday 15th September 4.45pm (5.15pm kick-off) - visit http://www.premiersports.tv/ for subscription details.
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