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Blue Square Bet Premier Promotion Final betting preview

Wednesday May 18, 2011

Blue Square Bet Premier Promotion Final betting preview by Alan Alger from Blue Square

AFC WIMBLEDON v LUTON TOWN - Saturday 21st May, 3pm kick-off, City of Manchester Stadium

Blue Square Bet Premier Promotion Final betting preview by Alan Alger from Blue Square

AFC WIMBLEDON v LUTON TOWN - Saturday 21st May, 3pm kick-off, City of Manchester Stadium

Despite finishing one place and six points behind AFC Wimbledon in the final Blue Square Bet Premier table it's Luton Town that are the narrow 7/5 favourites to win Saturday's match. AFC Wimbledon are the 8/5 outsiders with Blue Square and the draw is available at 12/5. Terry Brown's team have not tasted defeat since March 18 when they were 3-1 losers at eventual champions Crawley Town. In nine games since that defeat they have failed to win in only one (a goalless draw at Forest Green) and conceded just four goals in over 800 minutes of competitive football. Finding a way past that solid Wombles defence will be a real challenge for Luton boss Gary Brabin who does at least have some real striking options at his disposal. Brabin's team have scored 13 goals in their last five matches and averaged 1.85 goals per game in the regular season. The Kenilworth Road side have been scoring goals from all sections of the pitch recently which bodes well for this final.


‘First Goalscorer' prices for Zdenek Kroca and George Pilkington of 20/1 and 22/1 respectively could be very tempting on our unlimited each-way terms for the Luton centre-backs who like to get forward for set-pieces. Recent signing Kaid Mohamed was in excellent goalscoring form for AFC WImbledon as they made it through to the final and he is 80/1 to repeat his hat-trick from the second leg against Fleetwood on this big stage in Manchester. Claude Gnakpa is no stranger to scoring important goals for Luton and he is priced at 9/2 to score in any Hatters' victory on our exclusive ‘Score/Win Double' market.


A price of 8/1 for ‘No Goalscorer' in the standard 90 minutes points to a game with plenty at stake and limited goalmouth action. Whilst early goals could obviously change that cautious attitude with decent defences on show and an average of two goals per game between these sides in this division - ‘Under 2.5' on the goals market could be a good investment at 8/11. Over a quarter of Luton's matches this season have ended in either a 1-0 win or a 1-1 draw and those outcomes are priced at 13/2 for a one goal win and 6/1 for the 1-1 stalemate. AFC Wimbledon's most common result is a 2-1 win and that can be backed at 9/1.  


It's 8/11 that Luton achieve promotion today and Evens that AFC Wimbledon can prevail by any means. Those means could entail ‘Extra-Time' or even a ‘Penalty Shoot-Out' which have been accounted for in our Blue Square Match Specials section. You can back either side to win on penalties at 10/1 or take Luton at 8/1 to win in extra-time, with AFC Wimbledon available at 11/1 to do likewise.


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